Everyone is glad 2020 is in the books. Everyone is also hopeful that 2021 will bring more prosperity and a brighter future. If the first week of 2021 is representative of the rest of the year, it could be another long one for Americans. The threat landscape in 2021 has not changed much from last year, but there are some differences. There are also some indications some of the past year’s threats could be worse.
Persistent cyber threats from state actors like Russia, Iran, North Korea and China will continue. Cyber attacks like the recent SolarWinds hack, believed to be by Russia, could increase given the incoming Biden administration’s stance on Russia. There is also a possibility the new administration will not enforce bans imposed by the Trump administration against certain Chinese apps that have the ability to collect mass data on Americans.
The threat from Iran will remain. As the one-year anniversary of a U.S. drone attack that resulted in the death of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani passed last week without retaliation, many believe Iran will eventually avenge this death.
The global pandemic will continue to affect the threat environment around the world. Unrest in many countries regarding government lockdowns and ambiguous COVID-19 restrictions will continue through the New Year. The economic downturn due to the pandemic will also result in increased civil unrest throughout the world. A new threat will likely emerge when it comes to the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines this year. Inevitably, a black market will be created for people who wish to skip the line so to speak to get the vaccine.
Domestically, the divisions amongst Americans over politics and racial inequality continue to increase the threat for civil unrest. Yesterday’s storming of the U.S. capital by a criminal mob highlight that tensions are at a boiling point. Distrust of government institutions like the election process and some people’s belief that their grievances are not being heard have increased the likelihood of anti-government domestic terrorism. Both right-wing and left-wing terrorism within the United States is a very real possibility. Hostile state actors will also attempt to exploit the divisions within the United States to further weaken the country.
Finally any time a new administration takes over, foreign advisories are likely to test them to see what they can get away with. The transition period is always a time of greater vulnerability. This will be especially true this year, as the disputed election has created a shortened transition period between the two administrations. This year, the incoming president has a completely different personality and political philosophy than the outgoing one. This can also increase the chances other nations will test the new administration. These tests pose a threat within themselves as well as having potential for miscalculation or over reaction, which can lead to more serious consequences.
We can all be relieved 2020 is now over, however, we must prepare ourselves for some additional threats in 2021. With preparation, vigilance, awareness and resolve, we will be able to control these threats and make 2021 a good year.
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