Eight days after the terror attacks of September 11, 2001, the American intelligence community had boots on the ground in Afghanistan, followed by the United States military shortly thereafter. The United States has had a continuous combat presence in Afghanistan ever since. The two decades of American military influence in Afghanistan will come to an end unconditionally by the end of this month.
After the Biden administration announced the troop withdrawal, the Taliban began to control more and more territory in Afghanistan. On July 1, the American military abandoned their largest airfield and symbol of allied military operations in Afghanistan, Bagram Air Base, during the middle of the night. Days ago, the Taliban took the base and released over 5000 Taliban and Islamic State prisoners housed there. The Taliban has continued to gain a stranglehold on the majority of the country, including the capital of Kabul, with little resistance from the Afghan National Army.
The situation has deteriorated to the point that the United States Embassy in Kabul had to be evacuated and was subsequently taken by the Taliban. Afghan President Ghani fled the country in the middle of the night. The Taliban currently has control over Kabul and has the airport surrounded, leaving tens of thousands of foreign nationals and Afghanistan citizens stranded in a precarious position. The Taliban has also captured a significant amount of weapons, including air assets and drones provided to the Afghan National Army by the United States.
These events, which have seemingly caught the Biden Administration off-guard, represent the greatest emerging terror threat to the United States and its allies that we have seen in decades. The culmination of several key factors could lead to a perfect storm for the next major terror attack against the West.
The first of these concerns is simply the fact that the Taliban has control over the nation of Afghanistan again. Surrounded by Iran, China, Pakistan, and former Soviet states make Afghanistan isolated to the West. This isolation will allow Afghanistan to become a breeding ground for terrorists and other illicit activities threatening Western interests. This would include the construction of terrorist training bases and terrorists being able to travel with impunity.
Another related concern would be access to terror financing. Control of the Afghan poppy fields that produce 90% of the world's heroin will provide a source of unlimited illicit funds to the Taliban and other unscrupulous warlords who're in bed with terror and organised crime groups.
The next factor of concern is the approximately 5000 Taliban and Islamic State prisoners that have been released. The prisoners housed at Bagram Air Base were some of the highest risk prisoners being held in Afghanistan. Some of them have been in custody there for years. Being held in austere conditions and being isolated with like-minded persons who share the same ideology and resentment towards the West creates a fertile breeding ground for terror plots to be conceived. Now released, they are free to execute some of these developed plans to get "revenge" on their American and allied captors.
To go along with the concerns mentioned earlier of having a substantial number of people now operating freely who intend to commit terrorism, the next set of problems has to do with the capability to launch an attack. The large stockpiles of weapons seized by the Taliban, including very sophisticated aviation assets, could easily find their way into the hands of terror groups. While the weapons cannot directly threaten the United States, they do pose a training opportunity and the capability to threaten civilian populations in the area.
The more significant concern is the ability of terror groups to move freely as they did before 9-11. Compounding this problem is the vulnerability of the United States at its southern border. Potential terrorists can leave Afghanistan and transit countries in South and Central America. They can then exploit the current migrant crisis in the United States by crossing the vulnerable southern border.
The economic downturn brought on by the global pandemic is also a concern. Many public and private sector organisations are not able to spend the money needed for the additional security required to mitigate an increased terror risk. Industries that are home to the softest targets, such as entertainment venues, restaurants, nightlife and retail shopping, were the most brutal hit financially during the pandemic. Asking them to spend large amounts of money on security when they are barely staying solvent is unrealistic.
Finally, terror groups are now emboldened by the perceived victory over the United States and their allies in Afghanistan. Symbolic victories are significant for the recruitment of terrorists. Radicalisation has been shown to increase when vulnerable people with grievances rationalise their views and a path to victory. Terror groups will use the perceived victory in Afghanistan as a tool to turn radicalised individuals into active terrorists.
These identified risks spawned by the events in Afghanistan over the past several days are cause for great concern for security professionals in western nations. A perfect storm is brewing. It is now more important than ever to put controls to mitigate the risk of terror attacks for your organisation. Industries such as aviation, which has always been an obsession with terror groups and critical infrastructure, should be aware of the elevated risk of recent events. Private-sector industries that are mainly at risk, such as entertainment venues, markets, nightlife, and other soft targets, should also be taking steps to mitigate the increased terror risk over the next several months.
Convincing organisations to bear the financial burden required to defend against this increased threat properly will not be easy during the pandemic. Your organisation should start by conducting a professional risk assessment considering the new risks outlined above to inform stakeholders of your vulnerabilities accurately.
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